India Solar Energy Capacity: Quick Facts & Updates

India PV Industry: Fast Facts

1）Module Production Capacity to Hit 125GW by End-2025

According to Perfect Storm in the Indian Solar Supply Chain, the latest report released by Wood Mackenzie on October 30, 2025, India’s solar module production capacity will reach 125GW by the end of 2025.

India’s domestic solar installation volume is projected to stand at around 38GW in 2025, meaning the module production capacity will be three times that of downstream installation demand. The industry is expected to see a module inventory of 29GW in Q3, compared with a mere 13GW in Q3

In terms of module exports, affected by the U.S. imposition of a 50% retaliatory tariff on Indian imports, shipments in H1 2025 dropped by 52% year-on-year, falling to 2GW from the same period in 2024.
Hryshko (Head of PV Supply Chain Research, Wood Mackenzie) commented:“India stands at a crossroads, yet it undoubtedly holds the clearest potential to emerge as the only credible large-scale alternative to China’s solar supply chain. Current challenges are not obstacles, but rather a clear roadmap for the future. The key to success lies in shifting focus from mere capacity expansion to achieving cost competitiveness. This requires ramping up proactive R&D initiatives, investing in next-generation technologies, and strategically tapping into new export markets across Africa, Latin America and Europe. The foundation has been laid; this is the crucial step to securing long-term success.”

2) Module Production Capacity to Reach 220GW by End of FY2028

(Note: FY2028: April 1, 2027 – March 31, 2028)

On November 3, CareEdge Advisory (the consulting arm of the former CARE Ratings), an Indian rating agency, released a research report stating that:India’s domestic solar module manufacturing capacity will surge nearly fourfold in just four years, skyrocketing from approximately 60GW in March 2024 to 220GW by the end of FY2028.

The CareEdge report clearly points out that this unprecedented capacity expansion is not entirely market-driven, but rather forcefully fueled by the Indian government’s “policy rocket”.

Production-Linked Incentive (PLI) Scheme: This is the core driver behind the current capacity boom. The Indian government has earmarked a massive budget (around 240 billion rupees, nearly USD 3 billion) to provide substantial subsidies for manufacturers establishing a full industrial chain from polysilicon to modules (especially high-efficiency modules) in India.

Trade Barriers (BCD & ALMM): India imposes high Basic Customs Duty (BCD) on imported photovoltaic modules and cells (currently 40% on modules). Meanwhile, through the Approved List of Models and Manufacturers (ALMM) mechanism, it strictly restricts foreign manufacturers from participating in tenders for domestic government and large-scale projects.

This “carrot-and-stick” approach has artificially created a high-margin, protected domestic market, compelling all players seeking a share of the Indian market—whether local giants like Reliance, Tata and Adani, or international enterprises such as First Solar—to set up local manufacturing facilities in India.

The report also notes that exports are the only path to survival—a principle that not only applies to China’s photovoltaic industry, but is also gradually becoming relevant to the Indian PV market.

CareEdge points out that in the coming years, India’s output of photovoltaic modules and cells will significantly outstrip domestic demand, and exports will emerge as the primary driver of growth for the industry. According to the report’s projections, India’s annual domestic PV installation demand is expected to be only around 40–45GW, which can absorb a mere 20% of local production capacity.

The report indicates that the export decline in FY2025 is mainly attributed to the sharp drop in shipments to the U.S.—a market that once accounted for over 95% of India’s total module exports.

Notably, in the first four months of FY2026, even though domestic demand had absorbed the majority of locally produced solar cells, developers still ramped up shipments to beat the tariff deadline, leading to a rebound in exports to the U.S. Meanwhile, imports dropped by 54% over the same period, underscoring the progress India has made toward solar energy self-sufficiency.

This 220GW production capacity was designed from the outset not merely to serve India’s own needs. Instead, it represents a “national-level high-stakes bet” for India to emerge as the world’s second-largest photovoltaic manufacturing hub and export pivot, right after China. However, this path to exports is fraught with hurdles: on the global market, Indian products will face head-to-head competition from China’s photovoltaic industry chain, which still holds an unassailable edge in terms of cost, efficiency and scale.

Furthermore, both the U.S. and Europe have imposed varying degrees of trade barriers on photovoltaic products (such as anti-dumping and countervailing duty investigations). While Indian products may currently enjoy certain tariff advantages (e.g., compared with those from China and Southeast Asia), a sharp surge in their export volumes will inevitably trigger new trade scrutiny.

The report explicitly warns that if the industry’s Capacity Utilization Rate (CUR) plunges to the low range of 40%–50%, for the capital-intensive photovoltaic manufacturing sector, a utilization rate below 50% will mean that high depreciation costs cannot be amortized, and enterprises will slide into severe losses. It is foreseeable that an extreme price war centered on capacity utilization rate and a major industry reshuffle are inevitable in the Indian market.

Summary

Both reports fully affirm that India is poised to emerge as a formidable competitor to China’s photovoltaic sector in the global market, and the global PV market is set to welcome a new, highly price-aggressive Indian player. Meanwhile, the race for next-generation battery technologies also presents a key opportunity for India. Unlike China, which is saddled with a surplus capacity of around 400GW in TopCon technology, India is starting with a clean slate. The question now is whether India can seize this opportunity